Memorandum
Subject: Intelligence Update (S2)
To: All Readers and Interested Parties
From: Greg Smith, Author
Date: 5 JUL 2025
BACKGROUND:
The action in my upcoming novel, KILLER’S REIGN, largely takes place in Germany. For this story, I elected to use Germany rather than an attack on the United States to focus on other areas of vulnerability. Attacks against military, governmental and even US interests have been far more common in Europe than the United States.
From 1960 – 1999, most terrorist activity in Europe revolved around desires for societal or economic system changes or reflected the increased tensions around Arab – Israeli conflicts. The period was also a high-water mark for Cold War, which led to the wide use of proxies and covert assistance to terrorist groups. A list of terrorist activity for this period can be found on the US Department of State website.
The Soviet occupation of Afghanistan (1979 – 1989) led to a mobilization of the Islamic world against the global superpowers. Volunteers from the Muslim world flooded into Pakistan and Afghanistan to become Mujahadeen (fighters for Islam). The US provided weapons, financing and advice to expel the Soviet invaders. This activity inadvertently laid the cornerstone for modern-day Islamic terrorism.
In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. Fearing a larger conflict, the government of Saudi Arabia sought help. A Saudi businessman turned Mujahadeen leader named Osama bin Laden offered to provide thousands of Mujahadeen fighters to protect the Holy Lands in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government turned instead to a US coalition. The embers of radical Islamism simmered. When the US and coalition forces were not removed from the Holy Lands immediately upon cessation of the war, Islamic fundamentalists declared the government as apostates. The fire of modern Islamic extremism terror erupted.
Following the attacks of 9/11, US allies from Europe, including the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy actively provided support to the war in Afghanistan. The US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 further fueled the extremist causes, leading to a dramatic increase in both radicalization and terrorist attacks against the US, UK and the EU.
Between 2004 – 2019, there were at least 182 attacks in Western Europe and the UK, compared to 50 between 1979 – 2000. Two of the most successful large attacks in recent years have been in London (2005) and Paris (2015). On July 7, 2005, Islamic terrorists carried out multiple attacks against the London subway and buses, killing 53 people. A second wave of attacks failed due to technical issues with the bomb designs. Coordinated attacks in Paris on November 15, 2015, killed 130 people attending a soccer match and music concert.
German authorities have had success against such large attacks. Since 2020, there have been at least nine Islamic terrorist attacks in Germany, according to the Combatting Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point. Between 2010 and 2018, German police reported that eighteen attacks were prevented. In April 2020, German authorities arrested four Tajik nationals who were planning an attack against US and NATO facilities, including Spangdahlem Air Base.
The most recent attacks on German soil have been through “lone wolf” radicals. These included knife attacks (2021, 2023, 2024, 2025). In at least one of these attacks, (Solingen, 2024) the perpetrator professed allegiance to the Islamic State (ISIS), who later claimed credit for the attack. Other attacks include using a vehicle to ram victims at markets and festivals. The primary targets of most foiled attacks were synagogues, churches, other places of worship, and Christmas markets. At least one thwarted plot (Castrop-Rauxel, 2023) involved the use of chemical and/or biological weapons.
The Combating Terrorism Center assessment of the threat in Germany can be found here.
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS:
Germany has seen several close calls, some of which have been detailed in the Netflix series Terrorism Close Calls. In approximately half of the foiled attacks reported by the CTC, information and intelligence (especially electronic communications intercepts) from the US or other friendly countries played significant roles. This gap in the German intelligence gathering capability represents a potential vulnerability. Some German politicians are actively trying to change laws that impede authorities from more aggressive and effective surveillance of potential threats and to reduce their forced reliance on foreign intelligence services.
CONCLUSION:
Germany remains a primary target of Islamic terrorism. Germany is home to several large US military installations as well as the headquarters of the Allied Air Command (NATO). Germany is a close ally of the US and provided direct support (troops and equipment) to the war in Afghanistan. As a primary logistics hub, Germany also provides freedom of movement for US forces and thus indirect support to the US. Germany is the world’s fourth largest economy, and the largest in Europe, a tempting target for terrorist activity.
CURRENT OPERATIONS UPDATE:
Although KILER’S REIGN takes place primarily in Germany, the type of attack and vulnerabilities that are exploited in the narrative exist in many other locations. All my thriller scenarios draw upon real life events and scenarios for inspiration. Although fiction, the events and characters that drive the narrative reflect both current reality and my own experiences.
I invite you to check my website regularly. I will be posting information on my blog about the characters, storylines, and other interesting tidbits of intelligence.
Allzeit bereit!
Greg Smith
Author
cc:
S3/5 Operations & Plans
S6 Communications
