September Newsletter – Rethinking GWOT

Memorandum

Subject: September Newsletter
To: All Readers and Interested Parties
From: Greg Smith, Author
Date: 4 SEP 2025

BACKGROUND:

America was roused to action on the morning of September 11, 2001. A group of nineteen terrorists hijacked four commercial airliners, flying two of them into the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York City, and one into the Pentagon. The fourth crashed into a field in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, because a heroic group of passengers fought back rather than allowing the aircraft to become an improvised guided missile. The attacks were broadcast on live television. September 11 drew comparisons and parallels to December 7, 1941, when a surprise attack on the US awakened American resolve to strike back and punish the perpetrators and planners.

The attack on September 11 was neither the first on US soil, nor even the first against the World Trade Center. In 1993, terrorists detonated a truck bomb in the parking garage of the North Tower, intending to collapse it into the South tower. America has been the primary target of terrorists for many years, almost since the end of World War II. In the 1960’s, the rise of Marxist revolutionaries like the Red Brigade and Red Army Faction targeted US diplomats and service members. In 1979, Iranian revolutionaries seized control of the US embassy in Tehran, holding 66 Americans hostage for 444 days. In 1983, the US Marine barracks in Beirut was attacked by truck bombs that killed 241 service members. Other attacks against US interests included the 1993 “Blackhawk Down” incident in Somalia, the 1998 simultaneous bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and the 2000 speedboat attack and bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen.

Despite an ongoing war waged against America, September 11, 2001, became the start of what became known as the Global War on Terror (GWOT). Americans were on the ground quickly in Afghanistan, renewing alliances and coordinating strikes against the terrorist leadership. The initial successes in late 2001 through 2002 soon enticed US leaders to engage in more far-reaching programs of regime change and nation-building in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Over the next twenty years, through two expeditionary wars and numerous secret operations around the world, America committed trillions of dollars and thousands of lives in combat operations.

The GWOT for most Americans ended in August 2021 with the disastrous exit from Afghanistan. At Abbey Gate, outside Kabul airport, 13 service members and 170 Afghan civilians died in a suicide bomb attack. They were the last official casualties of the conflict in Afghanistan. The suicide bombing was carried out by an ISIS member freed from the prison at Bagram Airbase earlier in the month when the Taliban seized control of the base upon the exit of US forces. The bombing was both a final middle finger to the US and a notice of things to come.

INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENTS:

America tends to have a short memory, and most people tend to focus on the future rather than dwell on the past. The desire to forget and move on often results in dismissing or even ignoring key lessons from previous experiences. The lessons of World War I were largely ignored during the interwar years, leaving America ill-prepared for World War II. Similarly, American leaders either ignored or failed to learn the historical lessons about regime change, nation-building, and modeling indigenous forces after the American military, all of which the US had failed at in the period from 1959 through 1975, primarily in Vietnam, but also in South America and Iran.

America would like to move on from GWOT. The conflict may have ended for most people in 2021, but that does not mean the war is over. The fight has merely transitioned to new battlefields, using new technologies, new weapons, and new tactics. Those who wish to strike America, or even to dismantle or overthrow America, have not changed their desires or their ideologies.

Even prior to the end of hostilities in Afghanistan, terror cells and planners were making plans to attack the US. After the fall of Afghanistan, the Taliban resumed control over the country and began issuing passports and other credentials to known terrorists. Others received similar documents from Pakistan, Turkey, Syria, and Iran, enabling a freedom of international movement that had largely been curtailed for twenty years. Known terrorist planners reportedly turned up in Central and South America.

From 2022 through 2024, there were numerous, unconfirmed reports of terror cells working with drug cartels to move people and weapons across the US southern border. The poppy fields of Afghanistan provide more than enough revenue to fund terror cells and plans. However, the US was also complicit to some degree by providing billions of dollars of aid money to the Taliban, which undoubtedly lined the pockets of their leaders. Also, the US-built infrastructure across the country has been repurposed into advanced training camps for terror groups, providing a far greater capability for training than existed prior to 2001. According to some analysts, as many as 10,000 known terrorists crossed into the US between 2022 – 2025. Even if that number is inflated by a factor of ten, that is still enough people to establish dozens of terror cells in strategic locations across the country.

How might our enemies strike? There are numerous examples from recent history that provide chilling and realistic scenarios:

2004: Terrorists took over School Number One in Beslan, North Ossetia, in the Russian Federation. The siege lasted three days. Over 1100 people were held hostage, 334 died, including 186 children.

2005: Terrorists detonated a series of improvised explosive devices made from hydrogen peroxide bombs in the London underground. 52 people were killed and over 800 injured.

2008: Terrorists launched a series of attacks across Mumbai, India that lasted for four days. The attacks included bombs and shootings. Over 175 people died and 300 were injured.

2010: Terrorists detonated multiple car bombs over two days in Lahore, Pakistan, targeting government offices and military convoys. 45 people died and 100 were injured.

2010: A car bomb was placed in Times Square in New York City but failed to detonate. The bomber, a Pakistani with ties to the Taliban, was arrested several days later.

2011: A car bomb in Oslo, Norway killed 8 and injured over 200 people. Two hours later, a terrorist dressed as a policeman opened fire at a youth summer camp, killing 69 people and injuring 32 more.

2013: The Tsarnaev brothers detonated two improvised explosive devices near the finish line of the Boston Marathon, killing 3 and injuring hundreds of spectators and participants.

2015: Terrorists carried out a series of attacks in Paris, France. The attacks included bombings at a soccer match, shootings at outdoor cafes, and both shooting and hostage taking at a rock concert. Suicide vests were used in the stadium and at the concert as well as rifles. There were 137 people killed and 416 injured, including over 100 critically.

2017: A schizophrenic man with a pistol opened fire in the baggage claim area of the Fort Lauderdale airport, killing 5 and injuring 6 more. Another 36 people were injured in the resulting panic while trying to escape.

2020: A lone terrorist gunman opened fire in the city center of Vienna, Austria, killing 4 and injuring 23 others.

2024: Four terrorists attacked a music hall in Crocus, Russia, shortly before the start of a sold-out show. The attack included shootings, stabbings, and incendiary devices. Some 149 people were killed and well over 600 injured.

2025: An American man, apparently radicalized to become a terrorist, drove his truck into the New Years Day party crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans. Upon exiting the truck, he began shooting. 14 people were killed. and 57 were injured.

What is striking about all the attacks listed above is their simplicity. None of them required the level of sophistication, planning, financing or external support that was needed for the September 11, 2001, attacks. Although this is by no means an exhaustive list of the terrorist activity or attacks across the globe over the last twenty-five years, it is a representative sample to show how even solo actors and small groups can create mass casualty events, and sow widespread panic in a community. Imagine if 1,000 terrorist infiltrators each formed attack cells to launch attacks. What if those attacks were simultaneous or used the tactics refined through wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to target the first responders with secondary attacks? The risk is higher now than ever before.

Analysis and investigation of many of the more recent terror attacks in both Europe and the US indicate the rise of online radicalization. Terror networks and groups who are sympathetic to their causes seek willing participants. Those who are disaffected, marginalized, or otherwise ostracized make for easier targets for manipulation. Social groups, online associations, websites and social media are used extensively to prey upon the emotionally and psychologically vulnerable, playing a large part in radicalization. These sources of radicalization have been a common factor in the lives of many of the perpetrators of attacks in both Europe and the US.

Earlier this year, the US Government uncovered direct intelligence concerning an increased threat against American service members, specifically those in the special warfare community (Army Rangers, Green Berets, Navy Seals, Marine Recon, and others). The threat conditions were significant enough that the Department of Defense issued a “Duty to Warn” memorandum to members of the community. Clearly, the war on terror has not ended, but merely transitioned. Now, rather than worry about terror attacks on military targets overseas, our focus must be on safety at home. Schools, concerts, sporting events, and churches are now targets.