Memorandum
Subject: Intelligence Update (S2)
To: All Readers and Interested Parties
From: Greg Smith, Author
Date: 14 JUL 2025
BACKGROUND:
On July 6, 2025, Houthi rebels based in Yemen launched an assault against the Greek-operated bulk-carrier ship Magic Seas. The ship was transiting the Red Sea. This was the first such action since the US-Houthi peace agreement in May. This may signal the end of the truce and clearly reflects Houthi intention to resume attacks against shipping in the region. The assault on the Magic Seas consisted of small arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades fired from manned speedboats, drones, and missiles. The cargo caught fire, and the ship began taking on water. The crew abandoned ship and were rescued by another commercial ship in the area. The Magic Seas later sank.
Dispelling any notion that this attack was an isolated event; the Eternity C, another Greek-operated ship was attacked the very next day. The attackers once again fired small arms and grenades from manned speedboats, followed by drones. In this attack, at least three crew members were killed and others injured. Several crew members are still missing and presumed held captive by the terrorists. Eternity C was left adrift at sea.
The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, are a Shia Islamist sect led by the al-Houthi family in Yemen. The Houthis receive both direct support in the form of weapons and training, as well as indirect support and funding from Iran. The group also collects ransoms for hostages taken in attacks. Although very active prior to 2023, Houthi activity and attacks increased after the conflict in Gaza began. Houthi rebels launched missiles and drones against Israel, as well as against commercial and military shipping in the Red Sea. The Houthis sought to close and control the shipping lanes. Israel, the US, and other countries provided naval and air support in the region. The US conducted several direct strikes against Houthi positions and facilities, culminating in the peace agreement in May 2025.
INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT:
The Houthis (Ansar Allah) are a Shia Islamic sect with strong ties to Iran. A large portion of their weapons, including drone technology, originate from Iran. The Shaheed models are inexpensive and typically used in swarm attacks. Versions of the Shaheed drones can carry up to 100 pounds of explosives over 1,000 miles at speeds exceeding 100 miles per hour. The Iranians produced the Shaheed models in large quantities and have also provided them to Russia for use against Ukraine.
To increase their stockpiles, the Houthis reverse-engineered the Iranian drones, replicating the delta wing, propeller-driven aircraft using lightweight materials like PVC pipe. Other Iranian drones, including reverse-engineered US drones, have also been used in the Red Sea region. The US has lost several Predator-style drones in the area, which have been recovered by Houthis and undoubtedly provided to Iran.
Israeli air strikes in Iran killed most of their top military leaders and destroyed much of their military infrastructure. Additional strikes by the US (Operation Midnight Hammer) severely degraded Iranian nuclear ambitions and caused the regime to accept a truce. However, the Iranians did launch missiles against Israel and feeble missile attacks at US bases in Qatar.
Iran is in a weakened state militarily but not rendered impotent. Iran has frequently employed proxies to conduct operations against its enemies. Both Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza are Iranian-backed groups. The regime still derives revenue from the sale of oil to China and others and maintains the loyalty of other Shia Islamic groups like Ansar Allah.
In Gaza, both Hamas and Hezbollah are degraded due to Israeli military strikes and are probably in no position to mount a serious retaliation operation. However, there are other options for Iran. The Iranians are likely encouraging, if not directly ordering, Houthi strikes in the Red Sea as a method to engage in proxy war with some level of plausible deniability. This is likely to continue in the region and will also likely escalate without renewed air strikes on Houthi positions.
There are other proxy possibilities as well. Iran has offered a bounty for the assassination of both Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel and President Trump in the US. Intelligence analysts have estimated that one thousand or more Iranians have illegally entered the US over the last four years, including several on the terror watch list. The arrests of an Iranian human trafficking operation in Los Angeles in June indicate that the estimates may have some validity. Iran has previously encouraged and provided support to operations in the US, including hiring hit men in the US in a 2024 plot foiled by the FBI.
All signs point to continued conflict with Iran, probably through proxies like Ansar Allah and sleeper cells in both the US and Europe. Iran will continue to deny direct involvement in any attack. On July 12, Mohammed Javad Larijani, a former Iranian official and advisor to the Supreme Leader warned on Iranian state television that “It is entirely possible that, in the near future, five drones could strike a European city.” (https://tinyurl.com/bdf3ms9k). On October 14, 2024, the European Parliament issued a statement that warned that “The Iranian regime’s use of criminal networks as terrorist proxies in Europe poses a grave threat to our internal security.” (https://tinyurl.com/6zp37uxj)
The Red Sea will remain a conflict zone. The Houthi attacks so far have not targeted US shipping, which provides the US with plausible reasons to not resume direct military action. If there is an attack of some kind in the US that can be linked to Iran, the calculus changes dramatically. Expect tensions with Iran and her proxies to increase. The next several months will tell the story and determine if direct military action will be required.
CURRENT OPERATIONS UPDATE:
The revisions to Killer’s Reign continue. I found a few gaps that need to be closed and a few areas that I can either cut completely or combine with other scenes to enhance readability. I plan to complete this round of revisions and send the manuscript to my editor in early August. Stay tuned for updates!
COMMUNICATIONS UPDATE:
All my novels are drawn from real-world events and scenarios. My work examines the what-if scenarios. Although fiction, the events and characters that drive the narrative reflect both current reality and my own experiences.
I invite you to visit my website regularly for more information on characters, storylines, and other interesting details.
Fair Winds and Following Seas!
Greg Smith
Author
cc:
S3/5 Operations & Plans
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